Here's Why The Philippines' Economic Miracle Is Really A Bubble In Disguise

[hellafayta]

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I just want to share this interesting article about the economy of our nation.


Here's Why The Philippines' Economic Miracle Is Really A Bubble In Disguise

I am reluctant to write about the Philippines’ economic bubble after the devastation that the country has endured due to the recent typhoon. My heart goes out to all of the victims and their families. Please visit this page to learn how you can donate and help the victims of typhoon Haiyan. I have been writing a series of reports about bubbles in Southeast Asia, and the Philippines is one of the economies that I have been warning about even before the typhoon. My goal is to warn about economic bubbles to prevent humanitarian crises that result when bubbles pop.

The archipelago nation of the Philippines is part of the overall emerging markets bubble that has been inflating since 2009 after China launched a $586 billion economic stimulus plan to counter the negative effects of the global financial crisis on their economy. China’s stimulus plan called for an aggressive credit-driven infrastructure and residential real estate-based economic growth strategy that resulted in the building of scores of cities and other projects – many of which are still empty or unused – across the entire country. The stimulus plan succeeded in temporarily boosting economic growth, and drove a global raw materials boom (and bubble) that benefited commodities exporters such as Australia and emerging market nations. Very soon, investors the world over were clamoring into emerging market investments to diversify away from investments in troubled Western economies.

Record-low interest rates in the West and Japan, along with the U.S. Federal Reserve’s multi-trillion dollar quantitative easing or QE programs led to an epic $4 trillion surge of speculative “hot money” into emerging market investments from 2009 to 2013. A global carry trade developed in which traders borrowed large amounts of capital at cheap interest rates from the U.S. and Japan, and reinvesting the proceeds into high-yielding assets in emerging markets for the purpose of earning the “spread” or favorable interest rate differential. The explosion of demand for emerging market investments helped to inflate bubbles in those countries’ assets, particularly in bonds, which resulted in incredibly low borrowing costs for EM governments and corporations. Ultra-low interest rates have enabled government-driven infrastructure booms, as well as dangerous credit and property bubbles across the emerging world.

Read more:
Here's Why The Philippines' Economic Miracle Is Really A Bubble In Disguise - Forbes

[emailroy2002]

igka puno sa bubble TS mao unsa man? ma busdik sa?

[Romeojin]

O.... the yellow minions will not take these lightly. Lets see.. the first response will be ... The author is a paid hack

Ont:

This is what they say about "jobless growth" etc.



Let the gold buying begin lol.

[salbahis]

pareha rani sauna... during internet bubble... when it explode gamay ray nahibilin...either gipalit sa lain company or nag close... AOL.. Netscape... are just few of who made it but failed to stay....

[psyche54]

O.... the yellow minions will not take these lightly. Lets see.. the first response will be ... The author is a paid hack

Ont:

This is what they say about "jobless growth" etc.



Let the gold buying begin lol.

Yellow corns would soon start popping out here.

I made the same argument days ago here...

https://www.istorya.net/forums/politi...videos-26.html

[æRLO]

yeah, the yellow mob has been denying this for quite sometime. They do not understand that the Philippines is not exhibiting characteristics of a sustainable growth.

[SioDenz]

yeah, the yellow mob has been denying this for quite sometime. They do not understand that the Philippines is not exhibiting characteristics of a sustainable growth.

And You do?

[Romeojin]

And You do?

whats the point of explaining it again ? all we get are dumb ass replies...

.."claims expert"...

mas daghan ang expert deri sa istorya.net.
ang question na lang is...kinsa ang mo certify nga expert gyud ang usa ka tawo?
naa ba nay board exam o certification exam? lol

.

another expert

daghan nasad magsakit ang dughan ani karun. kani gyud si abnoy

Ambot bitaw ning uban grabe man maka personal, dumot kaayu bah. Nadala man sa away sa mga Politiko - unya raba kanang mga politiko wa ra ba na sila nag away jud kay usahay magkauban rana sila if ilang interist nay hisgutan. Nganu jud kaha di makatan aw sa Bigger picture bah sa economy without considering the POLITICIAN factor.

Epekto nah ni sa cge tan aw teleserye.

For me, daku jud tag change tungod sa atung workforce. If mupadayun ang pagdaghan sa mga OFW, daku ug change mu improve atung nasud Basta maayu lan pagka diskarte.

So atung i base sa dalan ang pag analyze sa atung ekonomiya? Atung i base sa dalan nga lubak ang pag ingun nga way chance atung nasud nga mulambo? expert nsad

ALL YOU NEED TO DO IS TO REBUT the author which is an expert

Here's Why The Philippines' Economic Miracle Is Really A Bubble In Disguise - Forbes

[Romeojin]

naa pa.. wa ta makuha tarong na discussion kung economy istoryahon.

Aguuuuuuuuy! Please lang brad maluoy tawon ka sa imong kalag..

You're inviting the unlimited wrath by the GMA minions, Green Commanders, Marcos Loyalists, and every other AbNoy hater on this forum!

Acknowledging any positive works done by AbNoy's Admin is a big NO! NO! here in iStorya..

Make way for ad hominems to flood your gates sir!

korek! daghan kaayo nagpaka arun ingnun nga maayong laki, murag genius mo post ug comments pero wa diay toy agi. dili nalang ko mo name calling pero hilas kaayo mangisturya murag unsa na gyud ka maayo sa economy.

heres the bomb...

all self-proclaimed experts here or those who go against the views of an "expert"...please show your credentials...lol.
para motoo pud mi ninyo...much better if you quote links or post publications on how you analyze the future of the philippine economy under Pnoy...naa mo article sa atong broadsheets, sa business section? lol

go against mo sa publicized analysis...
naay uban mo ingon dili tuohan ang media, yet you quote something from the media...tsk tsk tsk.

how long have been analyzing economies?
naa ba mo analysis sa atong economy during the time of Ramos, Erap, Gloria?..ayaw lang pud quote sa ubang "experts"..abi pa lang dili mo expert. lol

or tingali ug nahimo na mo nga expert, sa inyong tan-aw, kay sige mo ug basa and saway sa mga analysis sa mga expert pud. hehehe...


sa mga self-proclaimed experts deri...what is your fearless forecast on how our country's economy will be doing by end 2012 entering into 2013? full grown tiger o cub?

.

[M.A.D.]

Hahahahahahaha. I feel sorry for those who just bought T-Bills because once that bubble bursts, the yields will rise which will force government to decrease in spending and increase on revenue which means more taxes. The government has to find a way to pay back those bonds or else they will go default which would mean a drastic decrease in... get ready for it...

Spoiler! 

credit rating upgrades

what this means is that the costs of borrowing will increase. I do recall recently that the government just loaned from WB/IMF.

Also when the bubble bursts it may not end well for the real estate market as the prices of real estate is connected to the creditworthiness of a governments ability to pay back its debts. This stems from the fact that low interest rates have enabled people to avail of easy credit to buy real estate left and right. When the government is force to adjust those interest rates or anything at all, credit will be much tighter and people will begin missing their payments on the real estate.

Developers will lose a lot as more people end up defaulting. They will then be forced to sell those properties at massive discounts at a loss.

Hahahahahahahaha. Enjoy daang matuwid brothers.