I did notice that you've brought up Pascal's wager a couple of times. As you know, Pascal wrote the famous Wager in his Pensées (or "thoughts"), which is his defense of the Christian religion. Let's take this on.
The actual words of wager starts like this (I'll just pick out the core of the argument):
There are two choices...
You must choose...God is, or He is not. But to which side shall we incline? Reason can decide nothing here.
What are the wager and what are the consequences?A game is being played at the extremity of this infinite distance where heads or tails will turn up. What will you wager? According to reason, you can do neither the one thing nor the other; according to reason, you can defend neither of the propositions...you must wager. It is not optional. You are embarked. Which will you choose then?
And then Pascal goes on to say why you must believe......two things to lose, the true and the good
...two things to stake, your reason and your will, your knowledge and your happiness
...two things to shun, error and misery.
And then he imagines a possible objection...Let us weigh the gain and the loss in wagering that God is. Let us estimate these two chances. If you gain, you gain all; if you lose, you lose nothing. Wager, then, without hesitation that He is.
And then he replies it himself...That is very fine. Yes, I must wager; but I may perhaps wager too much.
Famous as Pascal's Wager is, you probably are aware as well that philosophers, professors, and scientists have raised various effective counter-arguments to refute the Wager.But there is here an infinity of an infinitely happy life to gain, a chance of gain against a finite number of chances of loss, and what you stake is finite.
First is the Argument from inconsistent revelations. Pascal assumed that only the Christian faith is to be considered. Diderot countered that "an Imam could reason the same way". And even within Christianity, the Roman Catholic Church cannot be the sole source of salvation. What about the Mormons, the Anabaptists, the Lutherans, the Anglicans...most of which, in the middle ages (and even down to today), have been engaged in religious wars or burning people at the stake for having a different interpretation of the Bible? If passion for belief is to be a basis, there have been hundreds of religions where people passionately died and killed for their God(s)...like Zeus, Odin, Wotan, Baal, Mithras, Dionysus, Osiris, or the Mezoamerican gods like Quetzalcoatl, Huitzilopochtli, etc. Which God? And How do we decide which religion is true (assuming that one of them is true)? The risk of believing the wrong God is not considered here.
The second argument is that the Wager assumes that God rewards belief. Richard Dawkins suggests that "God might reward honest attempted reasoning and punish blind or feigned faith." The American Historian Richard Carrier expands this argument as such:
Further objection is on the scenario of believing in God and finding out that there's no God. It is incorrect to assume that you lose nothing. In this case, as Dawkins puts it, "if you bet on his existing and therefore squander your precious time on worshipping him, sacrificing to him, fighting and dying for him."Suppose there is a God who is watching us and choosing which souls of the deceased to bring to heaven, and this god really does want only the morally good to populate heaven. He will probably select from only those who made a significant and responsible effort to discover the truth. For all others are untrustworthy, being cognitively or morally inferior, or both. They will also be less likely ever to discover and commit to true beliefs about right and wrong. That is, if they have a significant and trustworthy concern for doing right and avoiding wrong, it follows necessarily that they must have a significant and trustworthy concern for knowing right and wrong. Since this knowledge requires knowledge about many fundamental facts of the universe (such as whether there is a god), it follows necessarily that such people must have a significant and trustworthy concern for always seeking out, testing, and confirming that their beliefs about such things are probably correct. Therefore, only such people can be sufficiently moral and trustworthy to deserve a place in heaven — unless god wishes to fill heaven with the morally lazy, irresponsible, or untrustworthy.
The third argument is that the Wager assumes that you can choose belief in the face of uncertainty (remember Pascal said at the beginning of the wager "Reason can decide nothing here"), which you can't. And therefore the Wager could only ask for a pretended belief. An all-knowing God would see through this. And Dawkins asks "Would you bet on God's valuing dishonestly faked belief (or even honest belief) over honest skepticism?" From here, we can also see another thing that's assumed by the Wager: it assumes what God prefers or wants.
Pascal's wager perhaps used to pack some punch when the Pensées first circulated. Nowadays, some Pascalians acknowledge that the Wager might be unsound for today’s multi-culturally sophisticated society. If you've seen a lot of the high-level debates between the religious and the secularists, you'll see that nobody brings up Pascal's wager as an argument in favor of belief in God anymore. You'll only hear about the Wager from an audience (who's probably not up-to-speed on how that argument have been played out) during the Q&A.




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