
Originally Posted by
M.A.D.
Still too early to tell. I have read about those incidents in the past, it is not just isolated to Russia/USSR shooting down civilian planes but that's not the topic at hand.
Ukraine has a lot to gain in this incident while Russia has none but may have everything to lose. Ukraine will have to play on this momentum to their advantage while Russia will have to show restraint. It really looks like a false flag. But anyway, there is still more time to wait for answers.
AFAIK both sides can make gains. If Russia gets blamed, Ukraine gets support to quell the rebels that will be without Moscow's backing. If Ukraine gets blamed, Russia gets justification to go all the way into Kiev, without much repucussion from the international community. Also given the fact that its not the Russians getting blamed, but Pro-Russian separatists, so Russia doesn't really lose much face if they don't get the benefit of the incident. They can always say, if things don't pan out for them, that the rebels are acting independently or shot at the plane under their own discretion. Right now the game is all about causus belli.