Lesson in logic
A non sequitur is an inference or conclusion that does not follow from the premises or evidence. It can also be a statement that does not follow logically from what preceded it.
For example, it is a non sequitur in both senses when President Benigno Aquino III says that the lower death toll in the last two typhoons compared with the 400 or so killed by tropical storm Ondoy in 2009 proves that the government response this time around was timely.
First, let us examine the evidence.
The President convened the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council on Oct. 2, a full five days after Typhoon Pedring battered Luzon and left Bulacan, Nueva Ecija, Pampanga and Pangasinan submerged in floodwaters, and three days after he returned from a four-day visit to Japan. Mr. Aquino’s first visit to typhoon-hit provinces came a full week after Pedring entered the country.
In the meantime, relief arrived in the flood-stricken provinces such as Bulacan four days after Pedring struck.
No matter how the President’s apologists spin the story, a four- to five-day delay can hardly be considered timely. The evidence simply does not support Mr. Aquino’s conclusion.
Now, let us turn to the logic.
Mr. Aquino’s argument is illogical because the swiftness of the government’s response is not the only determinant of how many people die in a calamity.
The most important factor, of course, is the severity of the natural disaster. Another is location. A storm that hits heavily populated areas will no doubt take more lives than one that visits less densely populated areas.
Tropical storm Ondoy in 2009 brought a record amount of rainfall (455 millimeters in 24 hours, compared to the 250 millimeters of rain that Hurricane Katrina dumped on New Orleans in Louisiana in the United States in 2005) that resulted in heavy flooding in the densely populated areas of Metro Manila. In fact, the National Capital Region accounted for almost half of the deaths from Ondoy.
By contrast, Typhoons Pedring and Quiel brought less rain and spared the areas in Metro Manila that were hardest-hit by Ondoy.
Given the differences between 2009 and 2011, it would be illogical to conclude, as Mr. Aquino did, that the lower death toll this year was brought about by a better response from government rescue and relief operations.
After the President’s three-minute stopover at one evacuation center on Wednesday, a flood victim said it was unfortunate that Mr. Aquino did not have time for them. That, too, was a non sequitur. Certainly, the President had time for the flood victims—three minutes, to be precise. We do wonder, however, if he spent two or three minutes more at the VIP lounge of the airport, when he met with Miss Universe 3rd Runner Up Shamcey Supsup in September, just before his four-day working visit to the United States. But of course, it would be unfair to say this was an indication of the President’s priorities.
Manila Standard Today -- Lesson in logic -- 2011/october/7