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OTHER SUPPORT ACTIVITIES

My sister Ninotchka Herrera had contact with some aid/relief groups in Iligan City, particularly the Help Northern Mindanao movement, spearheaded by the Rural Missionaries of the Philippines - Northern Mindanao sub-Region (http://www.rmp-nmr.org/index.php) so she quickly organized our own relief efforts and declared our own house as a drop off point on Monday, December 19, 2011. The very next day, she and Walter Mainit were were able to contact the 1006th CDC MSU ROTC, 10th RCDG Unit and requested a vehicle to transport the relief goods down to RMP HQ. She and Walter accompanied the goods along with some volunteers on Tuesday, December 20, 2011. The 1006th CDC MSU ROTC, 10th RCDG also expressed support that they will pledge FREE DELIVERY of Relief Goods from anywhere in and around Marawi City, MSU, and Lanao del Sur, to Iligan City, as help for the Iligan City crisis using their vehicle.


PONDERING ON THE AFTERMATH

I began to use my knowhow and resources to gather information about the possible causes and the almost unreal high casualty rate brough about by the calamity. I did this to satisfy my own curiosity, and I wasn't out to prove anything to anyone, or starting some sort of blame campaign against individuals who perhaps, directly or indirectly were responsible for the tragedy. I am NOT an expert in climatology, geology, soil science, or urban planning when I state these remarks but as in any attempt to try and understand events in a logical and scientific manner, it's important to gather data and evidence, and like a good and patient, private investigator, one pieces these together to come up with a coherent picture of what happened. Let me also make it clear that I'm also not making any final conclusions as of this point--all my observations are that, observations and my own opinion/speculations on what could have happened or contributed to a very long chain of circumstances that led to this tragedy.

I've mentioned in the beginning of this article that it's interesting to note that the storm was only classified as a TS rather than a Typhoon. While I think there was no conscious effort in the part of PAGASA to deliberately mislead the public of this fact, the public has this tendency to tone down warnings esp. if PAGASA clearly indicated this was "just" a TS. But glancing at the NDCC SITREP released on Friday, December 16, 2011 (8:00AM mind you, almost a full 14 hours before the floods began), even though it was only classified as a TS, there was already sufficient warning given in the document. Nevertheless, I guess this also contributed to the rather relaxed response of people upon hearing news reports about the TS on TV/radio.

As early as December 20, via screenshots of Iligan City sat maps off Wikimapia, I made my initial "sketches" of where the overflowing water passed through in northern Iligan (Mandulog river), just to give people an idea of the path of destruction.




Then a day after that I pointed out that certain areas/locations around Cagayan de Oro were already tagged as hazard areas according to http://www.nababaha.com/. The day after that, I "flew" around Google Earth along the Iligan-Bukidnon border and tagged areas that I believe the government should seriously look into, as these areas belong to the Iligan city watershed, for possible signs of overlogging and extensive slash and burn farming occurring in those areas.

Then just yesterday, I made comparison photos (BEFORE and AFTER) of the Bayug Island and Orchid Homes areas, using images from Google Earth and from Richel V. Umel:





I've exchanged posts and status updates with my friends who are in better position (professionally) to give theories about what caused the disaster. I've also gotten some interesting and clever suggestions by these people about how to warn people of possible future catastrophic events. There's this particularly ingenious idea by Dennis Posadas (http://greenthinkingfable.blogspot.c...in-age-of.html) and a great step-by-step plan towards recovery by Dean Tony La Viña (http://www.rappler.com/nation/522-af...ngs-we-must-do), of Ateneo, and who himself hails from Cagayan de Oro and one who also lost relatives and friends during the CDO deluge. The link to this outstanding no-nonsense article was shared by Princeton-based Filipina astrophysicist Reina Reyes.


PERSONAL OBSERVATIONS AND CONCLUSIONS

So after doing my own "sleuthing" and based from discussion and data I've gleaned from these various information sources and experts, and using three questions from Fleire Castro as a guide, here are my own observations (again, these are my personal opinions, very much subject to change based on data that is hopefully to come in as the days go by):

1. Do you think climate change is the reason for the devastation?

I think it's too early to make any such conclusion without accurate data. I have been told by a certain Eric Pagaling that a team of experts from UP Diliman will be arriving next week, composed of geologists, climate experts, etc, to help assess/gather this data. It's impossible to verify this as a positive reason. I have to admit that I'm biased to think it MAY be a cause, considering what's been going on around the world re climate change, but unless more data comes in, all this will remain as speculation and not fact.

2. What do you think is the main culprit for this disaster in Iligan City?

Whether there was indeed any "overlogging" (legal or illegal) occurring in the highlands/watershed areas of Iligan and Cagayan de Oro, the fact that people LIVE very close to a river KNOWN to periodically flood is the MAIN reason why a lot of people lost their lives--you can see it in the comparison photos I've shared on my wall, some international commenters really blurt out the utter stupidity and seeming carelessness of ALLOWING housing projects right in the meader bends of rivers. Of course there are other factors but in my eye, this is the main reason for the high casualty count and photos and sat pics do not lie. Another factor is the fact that people were inadvertently misled into thinking that a TS (tropical storm) wouldn't be "as bad" as a full typhoon (and like what I mentioned above, Sendong was NEVER declared a typhoon, because a typhoon's classification is based on windspeed).

3. What do you think can the LGUs of Iligan do to remedy the situation of people going back to their homes?

It is illogical and downright irresponsible to go back and rebuild in a place where historically, people have experienced suffering and loss of life due to periodic flooding--and if their reasons are tied to sentimental or some emotional attachment to the location then the LGUs simply have to convince them that it's DANGEROUS to go back there and that LGUs have to provide relocation sites that are environmentally SAFE for these people.

The road to recovery for areas in Northern Mindanao affected by Sendong will be a long and steep uphill climb, but I think if we all see the consequences of this "sleep state" that the country seemingly has been re environmental and habitation concerns, then this truly a wake up call. If there's anything "good" that comes out of such a terrible event such as this, it is to mobilize the entire nation and ACT to effect necessary changes for the betterment of this country.

"The era of procrastination, of half-measures, of soothing and baffling expedients, of delays, is coming to its close. In its place we are entering a period of consequences." - Winston Churchill, PM UK, 1936

-RODION, December 23, 2011.