The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) is predicting a double-digit growth in exports next year as exporters have adjusted to the peso’s rise.
In his presentation before an exporters’ forum, BSP Deputy Governor Diwa Guinigundo said based on the multi-agency Development Budget Coordination Committee’s projection, exports are seen to grow by 11 percent in 2007 from eight percent in 2006 and 3.9 percent in 2005.
"Statistically, the export level for the past years had been very low. We expect the exporters will be able to adjust to the new exchange rate," he said.
Guinigundo said the electronics sector, which accounts for 60 percent of total exports, is seen to grow by 10 percent in 2007 from eight percent in 2006.
Exports of garments and textiles will likely grow at five percent; machinery and electronic equipments, 16 percent; furniture, 5.1 percent; and food, 10 percent.
Coconut product exports is seen to grow by 1.2 percent in 2006 and two percent in 2007 while mineral product exports is projected to grow 37.9 percent in 2006 and 42 percent in 2007.
In his presentation, Guinigundo also discussed the impact of the peso’s appreciation on various sectors, including exports.
He admitted that with the strengthening of the peso, Philippine exporters find themselves less competitive in the global market place as exports become more expensive in dollar terms.
During the forum, exporters raised their concerns on the continued peso appreciation and its impact on their businesses. This year, the BSP is projecting the peso to hover between 51 to 53 to the dollar.
For its part, the BSP said the peso will remain market driven and its appreciation is not only the determinant of exporters’ cost.
BSP Governor Amando Tetangco Jr. said earlier the BSP is more prudent in its monetary policy, as the Monetary Board, the BSP’s policy-making body, has adjusted policy rates by 75 basis points compared to the US Fed’s adjustment of 300 basis points.
Tetangco said the rise of the local currency would also help in moderating the country’s inflation.
"An appreciation of the peso can reduce power cost, which will be higher if the peso is weaker. The impact is in inflation, as an appreciation of the peso helps moderate inflation," Tetangco said.
Aside from the exchange rate, export products are seen to be more expensive compared with the other products in the region by about 10 percent to 15 percent due to higher cost of business, particularly wages and power cost.
The country’s main export competitors include China, Indonesia, Vietnam, and Thailand