Fiscal reform payback to go to debts, deficit
By Jun Vallecera
Friday, 06 03, 2005
The government has allowed itself to be persuaded by the credit rating firm Standard and Poor's to so-called “front load” or speed up its debt payment program rather than put first emphasis on strengthening its own capability to underwrite the country's growth.
This broad plan was surreptitiously embedded in the fiscal blueprints both for this year and the next where the budget shortfall had been cleverly crafted to hit no more than P180 billion and P89 billion, respectively.
The blueprint included estimated increased revenue collections from the recently-enacted expanded value-added tax (VAT) law.
Finance Secretary Cesar Purisima had said proceeds from the e-VAT law would be used mainly for capping the budget deficit of the revised P151 billion target.
In presenting these and other economic figures before a visiting team of analysts from Standard and Poor's, government representatives outlined to the visitors plans in which the budget imbalance would fall to just 1.5 percent of local output or the gross domestic product next year, equivalent to P89 billion.
This compares with this year's budget deficit seen to hit P151 billion, sharply down from original target of P180 billion.
The budgetary shortfall last year totaled 187.1 billion, equivalent to 3.9 percent of GDP.
The S&P team led by Agost Bernard met with financial reporters Wednesday and said the New York-based rating agency would focus on two things, one centering on capital spending and the other on the debt reduction program.
“It's not that we're against capital spending. It's just that what would be desirable is some kind of concerted front loading effort toward debt reduction,” the lead analyst said.
Official sources, who wished to remain anonymous, told reporters that these and other numbers were to be presented to the interagency Development and Budget Coordination Committee (DBCC) for its collective approval.
The Cabinet-level body is headed by Budget Secretary Emilia Boncodin and has the secretaries of Finance, Trade and Industry, Socio-economic Planning, along with the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas governor as ex-officio representative, as members.
Officials admit the fiscal numbers for 2006 have yet to be analyzed and approved by the DBCC but that they were nevertheless presented to the visiting analysts first.
Bernard acknowledged his team was told the adjusted budgetary shortfall this year of P151 billion from original target of P180 billion would fall even lower next year to just P89 billion as a result of the passage of the increase in the VAT rate from 10 percent to 12 percent, the similar increases in the excise rate for sin products and an earlier measure rewarding the main collection arms of government for work done well.
Previous numbers released by government showed that the indebtedness of the national government were to fall to just 75 percent of GDP from 78.7 percent of GDP last year and lower still next year to just 72 percent of GDP next year.
From last year's 5.4 percent of GDP, this year's interest payments alone were to increase to 5.9 percent and then to 6 percent of GDP next year.
This was consistent with government's goal of reducing NG debt from last year's GDP equivalent of 78.7 percent to this year's anticipated 75 percent of GDP and on to next year's 72 percent of GDP.
The country's external debts were to fall from last year's GDP equivalent of 37.4 percent to this year's 35.6 percent and next year's 34.6 percent.
Local debts were to fall from last year's 41.3 percent of GDP to this year's 39.3 percent and finally to just 37.4 percent of GDP.
Gross capital formation, on the other hand, was seen to accelerate to 7.3 percent from last year's 5.1 percent and to a lower rate of only 4.5 percent next year.