Trading the Philippine Stock Market

[vondave]

Sorry, Correction:

277,092 total portfolio. Total investment is 207,271. Total gain is P69,821 which is 33.69%

[MoD]

wow.. thanks for sharing sir vondave.. dili mana hambugero.. at least karun makakita jud mi sa big picture.. ako karun 10k pa lng.. lol but looking forward sa december maka deposit ta atleast 50k-100k.. kung muhatag ang parents capital.. hehe

kapoy naman gud pangita negosyo. nag negosyo ko sa una siomayan. 4 mi partneship.. kami una naka tukod dha sa talamban.. 4 or 5 years ago.. student pa ko.. ni boom ang business.. mu monthly 10k-15k indivually. kaso sugarol kaayo ko.. hahaha.. pirmi naa casino.. then after 3 years.. tungod sa mga pride sa kauban ug ilang ambition na mudako dayun.. na mismanage then ni down ang tindahan... now im into pitbulls - bully. murag cya negosyo gamay but i dont considered it as business kay magastos.

then i stumbled this thread by sir EP. pag basa pa lng nako mga 5 pages.. naka decide nako dayun. kinihanlan maka account dayun.. haha.. then naka raise 10k. mao to sugod nako karun na week. In my whole life.. karun pa ko ka palit ug libro. haha.. STOCK MARKET INVESTING by jason kelly. Im enjoying trading because murag gihapon ko naa sa Casino or bsan unsa na sugal.. naa gamay adrenaline samot na open and closing sa trading time. hopefully tuloy2 na ni..

My Goal this month. Di ko mag tuition fee!!!! I guess this is very possible...

[techguys]

dako dako na gyud diay amo na invest. mangita na ko every month ug additional pang invest ani.

When I first started trading seriously bai, I would only buy stocks nga minimum board lot ra jud coz mao ra man ako ma-afford. So every stock nako was worth only 3k or less. Mahalan na gud ko adto sauna kung ang stock was priced above 5k ang 1 boardlot.

Now bai, ni-abot na ko sa point nga ang smallest stock holding nako is worth 25k (SCC) and my biggest is 100k (AP). I only hold 6 or so stocks ra man jud at any one time that's why managko na jud tanan. This is the result of hago bai from studying hard and reading a lot of books. Ask me again by end of 2012 coz my high target is to finally reach my first million peso mark. Even if miss my target, I might get 700 to 900k di ba?

I recently broke 250k na man last month. Hinay hinay lang. As to how much I deposit to my account every month, it varies wildly. Some months, I don't deposit anything (last July gani, gikuhaan pa nako ako account kay nibayad ko'g bill nya nahutdan ko'g cash) But average ko'g around 10k deposit sa citiseconline account nako every month.

Right now bai, my portfolio is at P277,092. P207,271 of that is actual investment then P58,962 is gain. So my net gain as of today is 33.69%. (Gamay ra na considering 2 years nako unta ga-trade but I only got really good results starting mga 6 months ago when I stopped speculative trading).

33.69% sounds impressive now but it gets better bai. Coz if I follow my plan and my projections, by end of 2012, if I can maintain an average gain of 6% per month, I will have roughly 1 million for my total portfolio and only P400,000 of that is actual money invested, the 600,000 is gain. That's compound interest at work bai.

By the time i get to 2 million, my investment will only be 700,000 and P1.3M is gain forfor a gain of roughly 180%. At some point in the future bai, I will stop depositing money into my account coz mura'g wa na lang siya compared to the monthly gain.

At least those are the projections. The reason why I am so into this bai is because I can see clearly where I'm going and I like what I'm seeing. I don't count the pesos mainly bai. I count the % values of my gains. That's why I love tracking my money, coz I see where I will be if I can keep my performance level consistent.

I hope i don't sound hambugero bai. I only share these coz I'm really passionate about stock trading and I want to inspire others. It's absolutely incredible that you can earn money by not really doing any hard work -- just by using your gray matter between your ears and all in your spare time.

Wa bitaw ko kasabot ngano not more people are into this here in the Philippines. Kalimti na ninyo nang mga networking oi or lotto. Mas klaro ni. Legal pa.

[epgarias]

Glad to help.

Time is money bai. So if you're young, and I bet you are, then you've got lot's of capital. Small regular investments now will really become huge over time. Ako kay late nako gasugod, mao na gadali jud ko ani. I'm 38 na baya and I want to stop working by 45 or earlier.

Same ta bro medyo late pud ko start. 30 nako and I just started mid last year. Swerte jud ayo sa mga sayo nagstart ug invest sa stockmarket.

Bro ikaw man guro pinakaveteran namo diri sa thread nga nagainvest sa local market. Two years plus na imo experience.. I'm glad naa jud si vondave nga continuously nagashare pud sa iya mga experience ug na learn sa market.. Thanks ayo bro..

[techguys]

pinaagi ni bro EP, naa na tay pangsideline ani, eventually kung kamao na ta pwede na pamugas.


mag EB pa gud ta tanan unya makighimamat ta ni bro EP. pier1 lang gud with 2 bottles of beer para magkailhanay ta.

[epgarias]

Usually, mga 2 months after, mu-stabilize na na. Within those first two months, as to what the stock does, it's anybody's guess, coz there is no trend or pattern that you can read. Even hardcore technical traders I know stay away from IPOs. Wala man gud siya price history and chart that you can read to make any meaningful prediction on future price movement. Pwede siguro kung candlestick fanatic ka but day to day trending ra imo ma-predict at most so much harder to make any meaningful gain coz of slippage.

Totally agreed with vondave.. Ever since nag start ko sa market kay wala jud ko nipalit ug nakapalit ug IPO na stock.. Usually ako ginabuhat ani kay I buy the parent or the holdings company sa kana na stock na gi IPO.. For Cebu Pac kay sa JGS ko mupalit.. Actually sa karon kay naa ko JGS for short term trading..

[epgarias]

pinaagi ni bro EP, naa na tay pangsideline ani, eventually kung kamao na ta pwede na pamugas.


mag EB pa gud ta tanan unya makighimamat ta ni bro EP. pier1 lang gud with 2 bottles of beer para magkailhanay ta.

hahaha.. I think mas dako jud experience ni bro vondave than me.. Mas maayo if naa si vondave and share2x sa iya experience sa atoa ug tudloan pud ta ginagmay sa market.. Actually stock investing/trading requires continues learning and self improvement gihapon.. Add2x lang ko additional insights base sa koa 1 year na experience..

I salute bro vondave jud for sharing to us what he learned diri sa thread na kani..
Bro vondave set nya date when ka available tagad ra ko ninyo..

[epgarias]

Hmmm, good question bai. I don't have a quick answer to how I would approach this. I think the thing to remember is that you should try to balance your overall portfolio so that you are not overly invested in one single stock or industry. Meaning, you try to create a well balanced portfolio to manage your risk. If you keep buying a single stock, or several stocks but they are all energy stocks like AP, FGEN, EDC for example, you expose yourself to huge risks because they all behave similarly and might move down at the same time hurting your portfolio badly.

I'm currently studying Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM), portfolio construction, asset allocation, etc. These are subjects that deal essentially with the question you raised. When I know enough to discuss this more, I'll share it with you, but what I know so far is that the correct and scientific approach should be:

Step 1 -- decide on a benchmark portfolio. In our case, maybe base it on PSE index, I believe coz we don't have S&P 500 or Russel 2000 index man gud nga equivalent diri sa Pinas. Kung PSEi then your portfolio should have categories like 20% Commercial Industrial, 20% Financials, 10% Mining, etc. I don't really know coz I don't have data on hand, hehe.

Then step 2 - Noting the benchmark portfolio, you then buy stocks based on the breakdown choosing the best stocks within each category for your portfolio (or your preferred stocks).

Step 3 - You then overweight certain categories (or stocks) that you feel will perform better if you want to capture extra gains (alpha) and underweight others categories if otherwise. The more you tweak, the more volatile (beta) your portfolio becomes but the more extra gains you potentially earn. Diskarte na ni nimo.

Step 4 - Regularly rebalance your portfolio. If Financials are supposed to be only 20% of your portfolio but they gain in value and become 30% because they grew, then you sell the 10% extra and distribute it into other categories to maintain your portfolio's design. You need to do this regularly. Most financial services do it quarterly for their clients.

Wheeeew!!!!! This is modern portfolio theory but I'm still learning this guys. I will put this in practice by next month siguro after I've fully finished studying the two books I have on this right now. By the way, this is a scientific approach bai. And portfolio theory works not just in allocating categories within your stock portfolio but even asset classes within your overall investment portfolio, e.g. bonds, treasury bills, real estate, cash.

Bro salamat jud ayo sa imo pagshare ani niya diri. Ask lang ko bro unsa name sa book na imo gina read ani ganahan pud unta ko mubasa ug makalearn ani niya na principle na imoha gi post.

Sa karon I'm using similar approach/principle which I made out of curiosity and experiment2x.
Step 1: I select a benchmark (PSE Index).
Step 2: Select the top performing sectors which are currently outperforming the benchmark.
Step 3: Based from step 2, I pick stocks on those sectors which are currently outperforming their sectors. Overall I come out with a stock list which is outperforming both its sector and the overall market. Kani sila ako ginagamit na list para sa swing trading nako.

So far sa karon ang best sectors to choose stocks from are: HOLDING, PROPERTY, and FINANCIAL. Ang INDUSTRIAL kay ni down and same2x na sila performance sa PSE index.. The worse sectors are the SERVICE, and the MINING-OIL.. Avoid jud ko ana nila duha sa karon..

[entrepreneur101]

Techguys,

Yes, this is a great product. Scientific jud ni siya nga approach. In the US, they call this DCA. But please note lang that if you plan to deposit every month nga around 3k or less, then you won't really be buying more of a stock when they are cheap and less when they are expensive, coz at 3k or less, gamay ra kaayo imo options because of stock prices and board lot restrictions. DCA works best kung dako imo regular investment lumps. But in principle, sakto jud ni siya. In practice, lisud lang pag implement effectively.

My suggestion is to discipline yourself to invest regularly, period. Whether you use DCA or you just deposit manually to your trading account and choose stocks yourself, you'll enjoy the benefits of growth jud, guaranteed especially kung time frame nimo is longer than 10 or 15 years. Stocks are the top asset class jud for paper assets. This is proven historically across all markets and economies.

I do the latter bai. I deposit regularly to my trading account but I build my portfolio and constantly rebalance it myself. I refer to valuation reports from my broker. And, like what DCA does for you automatically by design, I intentionally buy more stocks when they are cheap and none when there are strong rallies, like today.

Here's a tip that really works bai based on my experience. When the market has bull rallies and everyone is excited, don't buy stocks at all. Pasagdi lang na sila magkiat diha. You might even consider selling your mature stocks when rallies happen. Only buy stocks when everyone is scared of the market, like when there's been a series of bearish days, like last week or when bad things happen, like after the Quirino hostage event. Stocks prices go down so look for good value stocks that are on bargain. That's the best time to buy, when stocks are on bargain sale. Then wait.

This takes patience bai, coz when you have extra money, you will always be tempted to buy a stock, any stock at all. Wrong approach. Keep it in cash and wait for the right time to buy. Diskarte jud ka dapat.

Good luck bai.

nice au ni imo advice dri sir, same ta og experience, dako ko kita basta ka palit ko og down ang market,
pero mao ni kinanglan heart of steel,ready ka mag pa pilde para modaog hehe =)

[entrepreneur101]

hahaha.. I think mas dako jud experience ni bro vondave than me.. Mas maayo if naa si vondave and share2x sa iya experience sa atoa ug tudloan pud ta ginagmay sa market.. Actually stock investing/trading requires continues learning and self improvement gihapon.. Add2x lang ko additional insights base sa koa 1 year na experience..

I salute bro vondave jud for sharing to us what he learned diri sa thread na kani..
Bro vondave set nya date when ka available tagad ra ko ninyo..

mas daghan pko na katonan dri sa istorya kaysa FM og TP. hehe
eb nya ta ninyo mga sirs para ma lingaw m mga newbie =)