Trading the Philippine Stock Market

[epgarias]

Guys, based on my experience since I've starting swing trading side by side with my value investing just to test it, I'm becoming convinced that trying to time the market leads to only modest gains at best. It's better to stay invested in the market. The last two investing books I've read recently both point to studies that show interesting facts that are repeated in this article I'm sharing. Historically, huge chunks of a market's gain in any given year happen in only a few random days during the year. So if you are out of the market (or out of a particular stock) in the 5 or 10 best days of the year, you've missed out on much of the ride up.

Check out this article, coz this pretty much summarizes what I'm becoming convinced of based on tough experience. You can loose 1/2 of your Investment Returns by Missing the 10 Best Days? - Manage Your Life on Shine

How are you swing traders here doing guys? Do you guys monitor your portfolio values at the start and end of every month? If so, how are your numbers?

Let me just share my portfolio's total gains over the last 6 months using value investing approach. Please note guys that these numbers are based on my overall portfolio's net capital gains plus dividends on a per month basis:

March (+) 7.81%
April (+) 10.19%
May (+) 1.7%
June (+) 6.25%
July (+) 4.37%
August (+) 3.65%

On my swing trade side, I've made 10 swing trades, 6 are closed and 4 are still open. Net gain for all swing trades as of today is only P6,124 for investments totaling P242,061 (total ni siya from overlapping trades). This computes to only 2.53% gain for roughly 2 months work.

Clearly, staying invested instead of trying to time the market didn't work in my experience. Am sharing this so I can get some benchmark numbers from you guys whether swing trader mo or value investor.

I like technical analysis guys. Don't get me wrong. That was my main approach early in my trading career but I've racked up unimpressive numbers on the months that I traded using technicals. I'd like to believe I'm above average at reading charts but my experience and close monitoring of my portfolio's progress every month seems to tell me my worst months were when I traded in and out. My best months came when I chose only value stocks and held on to them until predetermined target prices were reached.

How do your numbers compare with mine guys and what is your trading strategy. Thanks.

Good luck to us all. By the way, first trading day of September and I already gained 1.64% overall on my portfolio, and I didn't make active trades at all!

Bro vondave, congratz sa imoha system ug current gains. I glad naa pud trader pareho nimo ngari who is into value investing. As for me, more on short term trading jud ko using swing trading. Tudloi nya mi unsaon nimo gina screen or pick imoha list para sa value investing technique..

So far bro, I think same2x ra jud ta ug result. Ako gi suon pagcompute base sa imoha table sa imoha blog. So far mao ni koa previous 6 months na performance.

March (+) 5.79%
April (+) 15.92%
May (+) 4.99%
June (-) 0.62%
July (+) 3.85%
August (+) 3.25%

Hope the other guys also did well the previous months.

[epgarias]

PSE remains to be bullish since early 2009. If you are fully invested it is expected that you will get more than 20% of your principal. Swing trades, if properly done, can get more. But then again, I don't trade in the Philippines, I invest, just like you. Bro ep, can you match his returns? Furthermore, can you provide us your fundamental indicators, e.g., ratios, dividends, etc. And how do wieght them in terms of percentage. Because if you follow the analysis of your broker, you might as well put your money in a full equity mutual fund.

Bro based sa amoa data ni bro vondave i think fully achievable jud na siya ang 20% na gain. Unfortunately pure chartist and technician jud ko. Seldom ra ko ga check sa fundamentals. I think si bro vondave makatubag jud regarding sa mga fundamental techniques.

Regarding dividends kay I only play cash dividends and not stock dividends. The reason why dili ko ganahan sa stock dividend na mga play is ma adjust man jud ang price niya inig ka ex-date. Mubagsak jud ni iyaha price and it is not my kind of game.. Unlike sa cash dividend na dili jud ma adjust iyaha price sa ex-date mao mas mo prefer jud ko niya.

[epgarias]

oh may kalamay 3 digits green DOW mayta ma sustain =)

Whaa.. Grabeha sa DOW oist!!!

As of this writing 236.66% na ang iyaha gi saka.. Some resistance at 10250 then 10300.. If iyaha ni mabreak and masustain niya iyaha saka kay very exciting jud ang BER months nato.. Advance Merry Christmas ni siya for all.. Keep our finger cross.. hehehe..

[epgarias]

nice one vondave!

Murag pang warren buffet jud na imong path da. hehhehe..
Bitaw, ok man jud ang long term investment, kay dili labad sa ulo.

Oh well, I think it's better mix nalang..
Invest in blues, then swing trade on the rest.

Bro as much as possible stick on blues jud ta to reduce our risk then avoid pud if pwede ang mga penney stocks kay highly manipulative na sila..

[epgarias]

kanang account nga EIP sa COL. naa na additional nga bayad? diba kana nga account mao mana ang makaaccess ka sa ilang recommendations in tabular format?

wala na siya additional bayad bro.. Imo na siya e check sa ilaha fundamentals na table kato ilaha mga recommendation sa COL na list sa EIP account. Basin ang tabular format imo pasabot is kato naa sa TrulyRichClub ni Bro Bo Sanchez.. Monthly kay nagahatag man pud na iyaha team sa ilaha mga recommendation in tabular format based ra pud sa COL..

[epgarias]

Yes I am waiting for this. Hopefully they will also include options. In that way we can trade up market as well as down market. This type of trading can hedge my long position in the local market. Any dates on this bro ep.

Sorry ayo bro pero dili man ko familiar anang options.. I think same2x mo gina trade ni rescyth.. Basin matubag niya imo question..

If your referring to the local market implementation sa shorting kay wala pa man balita so far if when jud.. Wait and see nalang ta.. Hopefully ma implement dayon nila.. Thou wala pa balita I hope pud na kana imo ingon na option kay maapil pud na diri sa atoa nya..

[redhorse1L]

Whaa.. Grabeha sa DOW oist!!!

As of this writing 236.66% na ang iyaha gi saka.. Some resistance at 10250 then 10300.. If iyaha ni mabreak and masustain niya iyaha saka kay very exciting jud ang BER months nato.. Advance Merry Christmas ni siya for all.. Keep our finger cross.. hehehe..

currently at 10255 na. murag stay na jud diri nga line.. weeee!!!

christmas party jud ta aneh. hheheheh.

[innosoftcebu]

It might, i has been there since 11:53PM, 2 more hours to go.

currently at 10255 na. murag stay na jud diri nga line.. weeee!!!

christmas party jud ta aneh. hheheheh.

[redhorse1L]

It might, i has been there since 11:53PM, 2 more hours to go.

DOW up by 254.75 staying at 10250 line.
It's gonna be a green day!!!

[MoD]

DOW up by 254.75 staying at 10250 line.
It's gonna be a green day!!!

NICE..

happy trading everyone!!!

@ sir vondave - bro what do you think about BDO? plan nako long term ko ani..