It ain't all bad news after all...
Quote:
RP economy to grow amid world recession
Economist sees GDP growth of 4.5% in 2008
Agence France-Presse
First Posted 16:11:00 11/11/2008
MANILA, Philippines -- The Philippine economy will slow down due to the worldwide recession but it will still grow, with some sectors even showing surprising strength, an economist forecast Tuesday.
Victor Abola, program director of the School of Economics of the University of Asia and the Pacific, projected gross domestic product growth in 2008 at 4.5 percent with 4.0-percent growth next year.
This will be a sharp slowdown from the 7.2-percent growth posted last year but will be far better than the minimal or even negative growth projected for developed countries, Abola said.
The likely effects of the world financial crisis on the Philippines will be a decline or even withdrawal of foreign investments in the stock market.
Philippine financial institutions are not too exposed to the financial turmoil and those that have been affected have already made this public, Abola added.
"We won't have a credit crunch as banks have plenty of money," he forecast.
The mining and tourism sectors, which have been rallying in recent years, will suffer a decline as foreigners and investors stay home, said Abola.
Philippine exports will suffer as their main markets -- the developed countries -- undergo an economic downturn.
However, the business process outsourcing sector -- made up of call centers and other backroom operations -- could see a resurgence with the Philippines grabbing 20 percent of total demand from the present level of about 10 percent.
India, which has about 50 percent of the world market, is becoming too expensive and is experiencing a shortage in manpower even as more foreign companies seek to outsource operations to save money, Abola said.
The construction sector could also see a boom as the cost of building materials falls and the government resorts to infrastructure spending to jumpstart the economy, he added.
The eight million Filipinos working overseas will likely not see too many job losses due to the recession in developed countries but their remittances will increase in value as the local currency depreciates, he said.
The remittances of these Filipinos are a major pillar supporting the economy.
Inflation will likely rise to an average 9.6 percent this year but will slow to 5.5 percent in 2009, Abola said, adding that a recession in the United States might end by the third quarter of 2009 and this would lift the Philippine economy.
But he warned that the Philippine government should stop defending the local currency and be careful about deficit spending.
He said revenue collections were still not rising despite plans to increase spending.
Domestic demand can make up for lower export-led growth, Abola said, adding that "the government has to have a policy that encourages people to invest and spend."