
Originally Posted by
JoRed
pahabol...
SPICED-UP ECONOMIC NUMBERS CAN’T HIDE CRISIS
It’s not the numbers that matter, especially if the numbers are prettied up.
The Arroyo administration has been citing positive economic figures to deflect its political crisis, but according to IBON, these statistics are unreliable as government changed various methodologies this year to come out with rosy figures.
According to IBON senior researcher Sonny Africa, adjusting these methodologies tries to hide the true extent of the country’s economic crisis.
He says that an early notable change was in the low adjusted poverty thresholds used by the National Statistics Office (NSO) in computing the country’s poor in 2003. NSO came out with an unrealistic poverty threshold figure of P12,267 or P33.60 a day and claimed that only 1 in 3 Filipinos were poor.
“Even the ADB questioned this adjustment and argued that this would underestimate the poverty incidence,” says Africa. IBON estimates that as much as 88% of Filipinos may be poor.
Africa adds that there have been three statistical redefinitions this year: 1) National Statistical Coordination Board’s redefinition of unemployment, which reduced unemployment rate; 2) Department of Finance’s removal of intra-government borrowings from the computation of the outstanding public sector debt, thus reducing public debt figures; and 3) Bangko Sentral’s adjustment in its accounting method to include a 20% raising factor in OFW accounts and improve the balance of payments figures.
He explains that the objective of changing methodologies is to conceal from foreign creditors, business groups, and the public the true picture of the Philippine economy. For instance, NSCB’s more stringent definition of unemployment in the April 2005 survey has reduced the official unemployment rate by 4.6% and the number of the unemployed by 1.9 million.
“But this was achieved not by creating jobs but by simply removing those no longer actively seeking work from the ranks of the unemployed, in order to make it seem as if fewer Filipinos are out of work,” says Africa.
These changes will make it more difficult to identify the trends and make comparisons with estimates from previous years, he adds.
“But a pretty economic picture can’t hide the extent of the economic crisis that Arroyo’s economic policies have brought,” Africa says. “No amount of statistical deception can hide the reality that Arroyo has failed to deliver any real economic gain for the people.” (end)