Current Ukraine crisis..What do you think? 1st stage to another cold war?

[pak88]

Russia wants to get back Crimea and the eastern provinces of what is now Ukraine since it is historically part of Russia and not Ukraine. About 60% of its population is Russian while less than a quarter is Ukrainian. In the 1950's, it was transferred to Ukraine as part of some administrative order which everybody thought was insignificant since Ukraine is part of Russia but after the breakup of the Soviet Union, it became a thorn in the side of Russia with majority of Russians under Ukrainian rule.

I think Russia is justified in its actions since majority of the citizens are Russians and it has been a Russian province until the issuance of an obscure order in the 1950's. The West can pump its chest but can't do anything about it since majority of Russians support Putin on this and nobody in the West will support a war over Crimea which is obviously Russian.

[M.A.D.]

Both of them can't go against each other actually. But in Russia's case, the war is at her backyard. Of course she does not have a choice. It won't be so costly on Russia's side in this case since they don't have that much of a problem with logistics since it has very close proximity with their bases.

Obama can't risk going to another war since it is one of his campaigns promises to cut back on overseas wars. Plus you have to include the fact that the US is going to cut their forces down to pre-WWII levels which I think is less than 1,000,000 active military personnel.

Of course if there was a similar scenario playing out in cuba, the US would do the same likewise.

Russia cant afford to go to war against the US and Allies kay according pa sa usa ka analyst, their economy is struggling raba.

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Crimeans have a better future going with Russia. Ukraine since it's independence has been transferred from one unstable government to the next. It has not gotten any better since.

Either way, they are going to hold a referendum to decide their fate and it will be biased towards joining Russia.

Russia wants to get back Crimea and the eastern provinces of what is now Ukraine since it is historically part of Russia and not Ukraine. About 60% of its population is Russian while less than a quarter is Ukrainian. In the 1950's, it was transferred to Ukraine as part of some administrative order which everybody thought was insignificant since Ukraine is part of Russia but after the breakup of the Soviet Union, it became a thorn in the side of Russia with majority of Russians under Ukrainian rule.

I think Russia is justified in its actions since majority of the citizens are Russians and it has been a Russian province until the issuance of an obscure order in the 1950's. The West can pump its chest but can't do anything about it since majority of Russians support Putin on this and nobody in the West will support a war over Crimea which is obviously Russian.

[Nokki]

bisan ang ukrainian military is polarize either dili nila mu recognize sa revolutionary gov sa kiev and stay neutral , or they will take sides on authorities sa kiev,russia or simply sa local federal authorities such the case of the newly navy chief who pledge alliace to the local Crimea provisional gov.



BBC News - New head of Ukraine's navy defects in Crimea
naval ship defects
Ukrainian Navy flagship takes Russia?s side ? report ? RT News

http://rt.com/news/ukraine-military-russia-resign-437/

these things will happens if top leadership will be forcely remove such the case kani ilang mass rally sa kiev, people power will never be spontaneous naa gyud backround masters mu manipulate , snap elections should have been the compromise. i wonder dili na fragmented atong military katong pag remove thru mass rally kay marcos, erap or maybe its close to it, kay if the military will take sides it's civilwar gyud.

[æRLO]

Both of them can't go against each other actually. But in Russia's case, the war is at her backyard. Of course she does not have a choice. It won't be so costly on Russia's side in this case since they don't have that much of a problem with logistics since it has very close proximity with their bases.

Obama can't risk going to another war since it is one of his campaigns promises to cut back on overseas wars. Plus you have to include the fact that the US is going to cut their forces down to pre-WWII levels which I think is less than 1,000,000 active military personnel.

Of course if there was a similar scenario playing out in cuba, the US would do the same likewise.



- - - Updated - - -

Crimeans have a better future going with Russia. Ukraine since it's independence has been transferred from one unstable government to the next. It has not gotten any better since.

Either way, they are going to hold a referendum to decide their fate and it will be biased towards joining Russia.

AFAIK, The U.S. won't be the biggest thorn to Russia in this issue. It will be the EU especially, the closest power;Germany and to some extent Poland (who played some key roles in the Orange Revolution and has lobbied for Ukraine to join the Union since). The best scenario for the U.S. is to keep quiet and hope EU becomes the central antagonist to Russia's intentions--and not them. They can support the EU, but not become the the primary opposition to Russia in this issue. If a referendum does push through in Crimea, you can count on it going in Russia's favor, granted there are no anomalies. Once that happens, both sides should just drop whatever stakes they want to claim. But of course that never happens, so...

IMO, Russia's blatant meddling with Ukraine especially since 2004 is never justified. If the Crimeans really wanted a referendum, they should have asked Russia to lobby for one in the U.N. Irregardless sa justification, it's not right to just send troops over because the population in Crimea is made up of a majority ethnic Russian. A dialogue should have been opened about this matter, and if that fails, then they can put boots on the ground. Those kinds of antics can escalate really quick. The interim government in Kiev has no other option but to allow a referendum in Crimea (made up of 58% Russians, 24% ethnic Ukrainians, and 12% Tatars--97% of Crimeans use Russian as their main language). Other than Crimea, I'm not aware of any other Ukrainian oblast with a predominantly Russian majority, so if Crimea is transfered, Russia should stop with their actions in Ukraine.

[pak88]

The new government in Ukraine should be the one that is to be blamed for this mess. They revoked a law that allowed Russian as an official language in areas where Russians are a majority and banning members of the former regime (pro-Russian) from government. Wala sad sila naghuna-huna tarong na dako baya sa percentage sa population ang Russian and the Kremlin will not tolerate its citizens being left out.

[cobraKing]

unsa nman sad ning kagubot nila..

[M.A.D.]

In the case of EU, Germany is actually hesitant to reprimand Russia since russia is their biggest supplier of natural gas. Plus among the G8, germany would not wish for Russia out since there is no platform for direct recourse.

Ukraine since then has always been unstable. Too bad it is geographically located in a strategic point that serves as a buffer between europe and russia. There's always something cooking in that part of the world.

If Russia's meddling in Ukraine may not seem justified, we don't know what Putin knows. But it is still too close to Russia's backyard no matter what protests the international community may stage, Putin can just ignore it. But the whole of ukraine is no longer that relevant to Russian interests, since they have decided to detour a nat gas pipeline across the black sea and going through bulgaria and finally to EU.

Worse case scenario is the east and southern part of Ukraine goes with Russia, with the west and north joining the EU. I doubt the ones joining the EU will have a stable economy since the EU is still restructing it's fiscal and monetary system, to add to the fact that the ECB is different from the US federal reserve since in this case EU member nations can have unchecked deficits while being financed by richer members, adding a poor performer like ukraine is going to be a headache. Getting the ukraine to join the EU is the worst fiscal/monetary decision since letting greece in without checking their financial health. LOL this really looks like some sort of influence-peddling right smack in Russia's backyard since there is no economic or financial basis for getting Ukraine on board the EU.

The decision ultimately rests with germany. Germany is really hesitant on this one as they don't want to lose out on Russian natural gas at the same time germany may not want to provide adequate financing to a country as poor and corrupt as ukraine.

AFAIK, The U.S. won't be the biggest thorn to Russia in this issue. It will be the EU especially, the closest power;Germany and to some extent Poland (who played some key roles in the Orange Revolution and has lobbied for Ukraine to join the Union since). The best scenario for the U.S. is to keep quiet and hope EU becomes the central antagonist to Russia's intentions--and not them. They can support the EU, but not become the the primary opposition to Russia in this issue. If a referendum does push through in Crimea, you can count on it going in Russia's favor, granted there are no anomalies. Once that happens, both sides should just drop whatever stakes they want to claim. But of course that never happens, so...

IMO, Russia's blatant meddling with Ukraine especially since 2004 is never justified. If the Crimeans really wanted a referendum, they should have asked Russia to lobby for one in the U.N. Irregardless sa justification, it's not right to just send troops over because the population in Crimea is made up of a majority ethnic Russian. A dialogue should have been opened about this matter, and if that fails, then they can put boots on the ground. Those kinds of antics can escalate really quick. The interim government in Kiev has no other option but to allow a referendum in Crimea (made up of 58% Russians, 24% ethnic Ukrainians, and 12% Tatars--97% of Crimeans use Russian as their main language). Other than Crimea, I'm not aware of any other Ukrainian oblast with a predominantly Russian majority, so if Crimea is transfered, Russia should stop with their actions in Ukraine.

[andrew828]

kuyaw ni kaayo ky di jud ni buhi.an sa Russia ang Crimean Peninsula ky mao rana ila Naval base sa Black sea... magtig gubat jud ni sila

[amingb]

Kanang lugara ba mao2x rana sa Muslim Mindanao nga ilaha na nga lugar . nakapabor lang sila kay kusgan sila nalupig nila ang goberno ...

Kanang Crimea kay russia man diay gihatag lang nila after sa Cold War ... naa pud katungod ang Moscow protektahan ang mga tawo nga majority Russian kay subject na sila for oppression ....

[Nokki]

Kanang lugara ba mao2x rana sa Muslim Mindanao nga ilaha na nga lugar . nakapabor lang sila kay kusgan sila nalupig nila ang goberno ...

Kanang Crimea kay russia man diay gihatag lang nila after sa Cold War ... naa pud katungod ang Moscow protektahan ang mga tawo nga majority Russian kay subject na sila for oppression ....

dili na mura mindanao kay dili baya 50-50% dido minority sila didto sa mindanao much closer sa thailand crisis but didto mura 75% to 25% kay tanan election pildi ang opposition kay thaksin except didto ang military if mu take side tanan gyud so walay civil war kani ukraine bunkag ang military on two or three sides.

map of ukraine from cnn A divided Ukraine

sa Ukraine sobra pa sa klaro na 50-50% ang identity crissis na dili lang sa crimea ang russian factor, if didto lang sa crimea dili ka daog sa election katong former president na si Viktor Yanukovych who was force to flee.