Why do they put down RP so much?

[leonell]

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Why do they put down RP so much?
Outside the Box
John Mangun
Business Mirror
Why do they put down RP so much?

SO what did we do wrong? Is it something the Philippines said? Did the country somehow offend the Western experts? Maybe they are just angry that their forecasts have been wrong. Or perhaps they are jealous of our small success. Whatever the reason, over the last few months the Philippines has been subject to the most incredible amount of economic bashing possible.

I wrote back in February that over the 2008 Christmas holiday, the foreign economic forecasts for the Philippines, mostly positive before, had suddenly turned negative. The shift was like the difference between night and day.

Of course, we have to note what these people say. I mean when the International Monetary Fund, the largest financial institution in the world, and the World Bank (WB) talk, you should listen. Back then, the general comment was that the Philippine economy was super dependant on overseas remittances, and those remittances were going to drop like a rock. In fact, remittances were supposed to be much lower in 2009 than ever before.

A funny thing happened. The amount of remittances did not go down. Sure, the rate of growth is slower, but the dollar value of the remittances is historically high.

On Monday, the newspaper headlines (which look like they are written by the foreigners) screamed “OFW remittances plunge amid economic decline.” Is there a local journalism award for the most blatantly bogus headline? Actually, remittances from the US are dropping. But the fact still remains that overall remittances are higher in 2009 than in 2008.

Along the same lines, Philippine Airlines was going to have to field extra flights to bring all the fired overseas Filipino workers home. That has not happened either. The fact is that overseas deployments are higher this year than in the last, and thousands of job offers are going unfilled.

I mean, these guys are supposed to be experts and the year is almost half over. When are all these economy-killing things going to happen?

Exports have been badly hurt by the near economic collapse of the West. And the job losses have been devastating to the people who were let go. But the total number of jobs created has more than offset the losses, as evidenced by the April numbers that are much better than in 2008.

The Philippine Economic Zone Authority registered an 18-percent increase in investments to P9.75 billion in May from P8.25 billion in 2008, which will create over 6,000 new jobs as against some 3,000 in May 2008.

Now comes the WB predicting that the Philippines is going to absolutely, positively go into a recession this year. A week ago, we had a conference of all the local gloom-and-doom experts saying the same thing. You know what else? In April 2009, just two months ago, the WB predicted 1.9-percent growth for the Philippines. Interesting!

I think I may have found the reason the Philippines is being bashed so much by the world financial community and their local supporters. From the Inquirer: “The World Bank said there was nothing extraordinary about the Philippines that would keep it immune from the crisis gripping the world economy.”

Excuse me if I am impolite, but that is absolutely, positively one of the most stupid comments I have ever read, showing complete ignorance of the country. Maybe all these people are just plain dumb. If not extraordinary, at least the Philippine economy is different from most other nations.

As shown by the general economy, in spite of our exports being down by 40 percent, our exports have only a minimal overall impact on the nation, unlike many of our neighbors where 20 percent to 30 percent of their gross domestic product (GDP) depends on export earnings. Perhaps the WB experts were watching Hayden Kho videos instead of doing their economic research.

Then the WB tells us that the Philippines is in deep trouble because there will be a large reduction of foreign money coming in this year. Guess what? We have always had the smallest bite of the foreign-investment pie. Unlike other countries, the Philippines GDP does not depend on foreign investment.

I cannot understand why the experts, local and foreign, are still predicting such a dire and dismal economic future for the country when nothing in the last six months supports that view. It is almost as if they are hoping and praying that the Philippines will sink into economic disaster.

Most important, we are not dependant on the US and Europe for our economic survival and prosperity like other neocolonial countries. I think the “experts” hate that fact about the Philippines.

Maybe if we were being forced to beg the World Bank to borrow a few billion dollars to stay alive, they would be more optimistic. If you are a banker, you are always favorable to the people who owe you money, and do everything you can to get the others to borrow from you, including telling them how bad they are supposedly doing.

A side note: On Tuesday, June 17, at 9:40 a.m., I sent an alert to the stock-market investors I advise to sell short-term trading positions. If you are riding out this necessary and important correction, not to worry. The correction will end. When we bottom out at support, the next leg up will be around 400 to 600 points.

[Vince Russo]

Those news stories aren't meant to be put downs.. Financial Analysts merely look at the numbers and post their predictions. Sometimes they're accurate, and sometimes they aren't. But it's always good to know how things are being viewed from OUTSIDE your country. The BSP's predictions are generally WAY off, but in their case they prefer to paint a much rosier picture of the country's financial health, only to backtrack a few days later with "revised" stats showing a grimmer forecast.

[Vince Russo]

Government urged to institute measures to lessen RP dependence on remittances
By Iris C. Gonzales Updated February 23, 2009 12:00 AM

MANILA, Philippines - The government needs to put in place measures that would boost the local economy to lessen the country’s dependence on dollar remittances from overseas Filipino workers (OFWs).

Private think-tank IBON Foundation said the country’s dependence on exports, foreign capital and remittances make the Philippines very vulnerable to the current global financial turmoil.

“The onset of global financial and economic turmoil pushes the country into deeper crisis, especially since it is more dependent than it has ever been on exports, foreign capital (investments, debt and aid) and remittances. The country is going to be seriously affected particularly because the last decades of globalization policies have made the economy extremely vulnerable to external shocks and internally much weaker,” IBON said.

It said the situation that Filipino workers abroad are facing should be a wake-up call for government.

“While the administration has been criticized for its overdependence on remittances, it still places high hopes that the steady flow of OFW remittances will buffer the domestic economy. Such hopes may turn out misplaced as remittances and incomes of OFW households are at risk,” IBON said.

As of Jan. 31, this year, the Philippine Overseas Employment Administration (POEA) has reported that there have been 5,221 displaced OFWs in 15 countries who have returned home since the global economic downturn worsened in September 2008. The agency also listed more than 270 retrenched OFWs in five countries who are awaiting deployment because of establishment closures in their host countries.

IBON said there are also other less obvious risks for migrants. Prospects in seemingly less affected countries will also be poor in projects that involve US, Japanese and European investors — who are all grappling with domestic recessions and difficult financing conditions — or are aimed at US, Japanese and European consumers.

“The situation is a wake-up call for government which has mythologized overseas remittances as some kind of magic bullet for development,” IBON said.

Remittance sources are concentrated in just a few countries which are all facing varying degrees of economic difficulty, the think-tank said.

In 2008, the top 10 countries accounting for 88 percent of total remittances are the United States, Saudi Arabia, United Kingdom (UK), Italy, Canada, United Arab Emirates (UAE), Japan, Singapore, Hong Kong and Germany. 


This is one of many articles regarding the risk of the country's dependence on OFW financial support. I'm not sure if IBON is a Filipino or foreign think tank... And, I think that you may be greatly underestimating the opinion of the World Bank. They certainly aren't an ignorant lot when it comes to international finances. By the way, they just loaned the RP almost 71 million dollars.

[SioDenz]

If tanan observation sa uban nasud para natu atu huna hunaon nga gipaubos tah, samot nga di tah ka kita ug unsay kulang natu. imbis nga himuon nga challenge mu ingun na dayun tah ubos ila pag tan aw sa atu. Isa raba sa rason nganu ga lisod atu nasud ug haw-as sa kalisod wala ta kahibalo nga naa diay ta problema kay taas kaayu ta ug pride mga pinoy...

[cebulifer]

let it be a challenge to the filipinos then. that we will prosper after all these dire predictions of the economists.

but imho i think the philippines is still doing well. considering there are 5 bldg project 1 kilometer radius from my residence. if the philippines is in a recession, those bldg projects would have been halted.

[jrconde]

i think dili always na "gidaot ta", and dili always na sakto ang "predictions" nila. nahan lng clay nay masuwat about sa philippines. hherheheh

[masterjanuarius]

because today, we can stand on our own! years ago, gasalig lang ta sa foreign aids, specially sa U.S. pero with the economic reforms, hinayhinay ta nga mihunong pag sandig sa ila, mao nga dili na ta conformist ... sa ilang policies. before, dili ta hatagan ug aid kung dili ta mosunod nila; karon we can make do without it; too bad, some of our people, and honorables are still in that mentality.. no millions of aids, if the Reproductive Health Bill is not passed ... amusing lang kay before, groups go to the streets to demand stop sa pagpanghilabot sa U.S. or any other foreign entities .. karon, ambot lang kay daghang mi sulod sa bitag sa foreigners: they are shouting in favor of a dictated foreign policy which when passed as LAW will open the gates and flood us with millions of aids .. asa na mu ani!

[leonell]

It's just because of politician who are crab mentals, they're trying to oust a president maybe because of envy.................. they don't want to see the president to be remembered in her job on the economy. It's just like one the articles I've read that it was chosen who among the presidents did a good job on the economy: The Lawyer(Ferdinand Marcos), The Housewife(Mrs. Corazon Aquino), The General(Fidel V Ramos), The Actor(Joseph Estrada/ ERAP nalang kay taas) or The Cute Economist(Gloria Macapagal Arroyo). . Luckily The Cute Economist is the winner!

[vulture08]

hahays...dli na bag-o sa akoa ang ISSUE nga they under-estimated us.....They think we are helpless but they are wrong....Time will come...

[jebz]

Simple, it's because our fellow Filipinos are the one of the most corrupt people in the world especially the government officials. It's about time for CHANGE.