Collapse of the U.S. Dollar and Stock Market?

[monroy]

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There are some economists and notable investors who are expecting a total collapse of the U.S. Dollar and Stock Market within the time period 2011-2013. The scary thing about this is that these alarmists have been right before, most notably right about the 2008 subprime mortgage crash.

These economists and investors come from a wide variety of backgrounds. Some are famous published authors and the rest are investors. Jim Rogers, the commodities guru and partner of George Soros. Peter Schiff, a hedge fund manager. Gerald Crecente, a longtime critic of the Fed. Robert Weidemer, one of three economists who published a book in 2007 predicting the real estate bubble and crash in 2008.

I'd like to know everyone's opinions regarding this. I have video links to interviews of these people as well, if anyone is interested. Some things I'd like to know is:

1) What your strategies would be if and when the U.S. dollar does collapse

2) If you don't think this will happen, what is the basis for your opinion.

3) What do you think would be the effect on your local investments and on local investment climate/business locally?

Thanks all.

[makie]

1.) Wait and see what happens. If something goes down, something goes up. Look for that something that will go up. Maybe stick to our local stock market or time to learn and do FOREX.

2.) Simply because American economists and leaders won't simply allow their economy to crash. Barack is eyeing another term. If he can save the economy, he's on the right track.

3.) Just like in number 1, I'll wait and see. If the big foreign fundies are going to shift to developing countries such as the Philippines, I really won't worry much. Philippines has a lot of gold mines and people are finding a safe haven in gold during this time of uncertainty. The mining sector has been spectacular and it may continue to do so in the months or even years to come.

[monroy]

@makie:

1) Yes but also consider the knock-on effects of a crashing U.S. Dollar. Inflation will be in the high to hyperinflation range and this may have consequences overseas. A crash there will cause devastation in our call center industry, think rows upon rows of empty office buildings that used to house call centers. I think 80% of our high rise buildings in Cebu have American call center tenants.

2) Of course they will do everything they can to avoid a crash, but the real question is are they even able to stop it? Are there any tools left at their disposal now that successive stimulus and quantitative easing packages have caused spiking in debt levels without little evidence of long term results. The interest rate as well, already at 0%, can no longer be lowered further. Creditor nations are beginning to feel alarm over continued lending to the U.S. Once the buying of Treasury bills stops, the fed becomes the lender of last resort and the only way it can lend is by printing more U.S. dollars. Printing dollars = crash.

3) I should have invested in commodities and gold. If I'd read Jim Roger's take on the economy sooner (he actually predicted a commodities boom way back in 2010, or 2009 I think) then I'd have made a boatload of cash. Ah, hindsight. What I want to be sure of is that I'm not surprised by the coming year because it looks like it's going to be a critical time not only for the U.S. but for all investors. High inflation can wipe out all your assets and then some. Many exporters and holders of U.S. dollar will be in deep trouble if they get caught off guard.

[makie]

@monroy:

hmm.. I'm not really sure if you're here to solicit for other people's opinions or you're here to challenge them. But anyway, I'm not really that concerned if the US Dollar and SM will crash. What I'm really concerned about is preserving my capital and make it grow.

[monroy]

@monroy:

hmm.. I'm not really sure if you're here to solicit for other people's opinions or you're here to challenge them. But anyway, I'm not really that concerned if the US Dollar and SM will crash. What I'm really concerned about is preserving my capital and make it grow.

I'm here for both so there can be a discussion and all viewpoints can be heard.

Anything that affects the U.S. dollar will affect how your capital performs, so if you're not concerned you should be unless you are certain exactly how the U.S. dollar will affect local markets, prices of goods and the viability of local businesses.

By the way how is your capital invested if I may ask?

[lorenzoleo]

As long wala kaayo mga investment and Philippines sa US, dili ra kaayo ta ma affect, kay bisan naay crises, ayaw ko ingana dili na mangaon ang tao. Best stocks to buy during crises is basic needs nga business kana dili jud na mu sira nga company. It is very risky if you don't know the compnay that you are buying. Ang tao mapaso sa stocks kung wala siya kahibaw kung unsa iyang gi palit.

Basic Needs:
-Food
-Electricity
-Shelter
-Savings
-Health
-Clothings

Hehehe! bisan mag crises pa na ang US as long ang tao mukaon, mu gamit ug electric, mu palit ug balay, mag save. Dili na kaaffect.

Kay kung crises mas mag pa aircon pa ang tao para mag pa bugnaw sa utok, so mu taas iyang bayronon didto ni Aboitiz Power hahaha! Adto ta mangaon sa McDo or Jolibee kay maka tipid ta, guess what happens to the value of the company, it will go up.

"I don't buy stocks, I buy the business." - Warren Buffet. Sa laktod pagkasulti, ayaw tanaw ang fluctuation sa market, kung dili tanawa ang value sa compnay nga imung gi invesan.