Is the Philippine stock market going to crash?

**bidask** · 11-01-2010, 08:42 AM

You decide. Here are some of the arguments for “yes” and “no.”Yes, of course. There is no justification for what has become a virtual 21 months of higher stock prices. The Philippine Stock Exchange (PSE) index has increased over 125......

StocksPH.com: Is the Philippine stock market going to crash?

**mckoy_slipstream** · 11-01-2010, 07:20 PM

stock market is a volatile market and could go up and down anytime. you dont need einstein's brain to figure that out. pse is a young organization, lots of room for growth pa. and may i ask why you started 2 threads of same topics? are you a stock trader yourself? no justification for a 21 month high? what about a 21 month low? sa stock market, speculation can kill the bull.

**lorenzoleo** · 11-01-2010, 07:31 PM

When it crashes, then it is the best time to buy more. T_T! I love it when it going to crash because every disaster, there is always an opportunity. If you have a positive mindset, you can see many opportunites in a given problem. T_T!

**AmorsoloX** · 11-01-2010, 11:00 PM

Originally Posted by lorenzoleo

When it crashes, then it is the best time to buy more. T_T! I love it when it going to crash because every disaster, there is always an opportunity. If you have a positive mindset, you can see many opportunites in a given problem. T_T!

long time no post ko dire sa biz section bah. hehehe

anyways..

yup.. mas nindot gani nga ang whole market mag-crash.. it would give way to new entrepreneurs.. (albeit, hilak jud dugo ang mga established corps ana)...

never ever buy when everybody is buying... always do the opposite...

never forget the basic rule of economics..

"SUPPLY and DEMAND"..

when there is high supply, there is low demand, low demand means cheap prices..
stock up on supply.. if you keep buying, supply will go down, increasing demand, high demand = high prices.. then SELL!!!!

$$$

maski asa nga market, mao ra jud ni rule.. ma stock market, ma real estate market, or maski sa wet market...

**agent_sky** · 11-02-2010, 02:23 PM

Originally Posted by AmorsoloX

long time no post ko dire sa biz section bah. hehehe

anyways..

yup.. mas nindot gani nga ang whole market mag-crash.. it would give way to new entrepreneurs.. (albeit, hilak jud dugo ang mga established corps ana)...

never ever buy when everybody is buying... always do the opposite...

never forget the basic rule of economics..

"SUPPLY and DEMAND"..

when there is high supply, there is low demand, low demand means cheap prices..
stock up on supply.. if you keep buying, supply will go down, increasing demand, high demand = high prices.. then SELL!!!!

$$$

maski asa nga market, mao ra jud ni rule.. ma stock market, ma real estate market, or maski sa wet market...

sir kani nga rule is for stocks raba or sa mutual fund pod? so since is everybody is buying on mutual fund and it has high price, does it mean that ill just wait for the another MARKET CRASH? so that i can gain more ??

**redhorse1L** · 11-02-2010, 03:01 PM

In this bull market, Buy High, Sell Higher!! hehehe

**MoD** · 11-02-2010, 03:26 PM

Originally Posted by redhorse1L

In this bull market, Buy High, Sell Higher!! hehehe

Amen... hehe

di man pud tingali muc crash.. basin major correction lng sa psei before mu rally up.. as of now tuloy ang ligaya..

**lorenzoleo** · 11-02-2010, 03:34 PM

Negative people is guaranteed to lose in the stock market and lose in the money game. No successful people who are negative mindset. All of those successful people have positive outlook and positive mindset.
Negative mindset leads to Financially BROKE!

Remember always that investing is PSYCHOLOGICAL!!!!

Investing 101 : Do you know that the emotion of the peopple can affect the stock market?

**MoD** · 11-02-2010, 03:46 PM

Bull run seen to continue in 2011

By Doris Dumlao
Philippine Daily Inquirer
First Posted 21:40:00 11/01/2010

Filed Under: Stock Activity, Markets & Exchanges, Forecasts

MANILA, Philippines—Despite the recent run-up to record highs, the main-share Philippine Stock Exchange index has more room to rise and possibly hit 4,538 within the next 12 months on strong corporate earnings prospects and cheap valuation relative to its Southeast Asian peers, according to CLSA Asia-Pacific markets.

In a report titled “Still a Good Bet” released in October, CLSA Philippines head of research Alfred Dy projected that core corporate earnings this year would likely grow 25.7 percent and by a further 12.4 percent next year as the macroeconomic backdrop remained “great” given rising per-capita gross domestic output and national savings rate, rising foreign reserves, benign inflation and all-time low interest rates.

Excluding telecommunication firms, which are now grappling with mature businesses, recurring corporate earnings were seen expanding at an even faster pace of 36 percent this year and 14.7 percent in 2011.

The 30-company PSEi, the main stocks barometer, has so far gained 1,216.47 points, or 40 percent, this year as of Friday’s close of 4,268.74.

CLSA is most bullish on the consumer, property and banking sectors. Its six “conviction” picks are Metropolitan Bank and Trust Co., Universal Robina Corp., Metro Pacific Investments Corp., Philippine National Bank, Megaworld Corp. and Vista Land and Lifescapes Inc.

“Outlook remains good. Overseas Filipino worker remittance continues to wax hot. Population demographics is excellent. Peso is appreciating while interest rates remain low,” Dy said.

“We expect lending growth to improve in the coming years. Infrastructure development has huge potential given upcoming programs of the government,” he said.

The Philippines remains the second-cheapest emerging market in Southeast Asia after Thailand, Dy added. He noted that foreign ownership of local stocks was still low at around 25 percent as against the peak of 38 percent during the previous bull run in 2007.

In fact, he said the Philippines had the second-lowest foreign ownership level in the region after Malaysia, which is at 20 percent. “Simply put, there is still so much value in the Philippines right now,” Dy said.

While the Philippine market is now back to equilibrium based on book values, Dy said the average price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 14.5x was still at a 6.5-percent discount to the 15-year mean PE ratio of 15.5x, he said. A company trading on a PE ratio of 14.5x means that buyers are paying 14.5x times the amount of money that it is making in a given year.

**AmorsoloX** · 11-03-2010, 11:46 AM

Originally Posted by agent_sky

sir kani nga rule is for stocks raba or sa mutual fund pod? so since is everybody is buying on mutual fund and it has high price, does it mean that ill just wait for the another MARKET CRASH? so that i can gain more ??

i really prefer not to invest on mutual fund... i prefer to invest directly on stocks..
though paper assets are not really my forte..

sa mentality karon, daghan palit mutual fund kay they are expecting the market to go up...
so the players are capitalizing on these "apparent" demand for mutual fund..

so somewhat i say yes to your first question..

in some sense, waiting for the next crash would be a good idea.. or, alternatively, invest on some start-up companies.. kung naa crash. its the big players who always take the big damages..

i really hate to speculate on the market... i prefer a more active role in my investments..